PROBABILITY ESTIMATION OF THE DISTRIBUTIONOF EXPECTED RESULTS FOR 
PREDICTION MODELSOF RADIONUCLIDE MIGRATION IN POROUS MEDIA

M. L. Zhemzhurov and G. Z. Serebryanyi

UDC 621.311.25:519.6:532.546

A method based on the statistical analysis of estimates of the uncertainty
of the input parameters of a prediction model is proposed. Distributions
of expected data on the time of attainment of maximum concentrations
of radionuclides were obtained by the Monte Carlo method for a concrete
model of radionuclide migration in porous media. It is shown that, for this
model, the logarithm of maximum concentrations of radionuclides and the time
of their attainment obey the uniform-distribution law.

Joint Institute for Energy and Nuclear Research, National Academy
of Sciences of Belarus, Sosny, 99 Akad. A. K. Krasin Str., Minsk, 220109,
Belarus; email: silver@sosny.bas-net.by, irep@sosny.bas-net.by. Translated
from Inzhenerno-Fizicheskii Zhurnal, Vol. 79, No. 6, pp. 114-118,
November-December, 2006. Original article submitted June 1, 2005;
revision submitted May 25, 2006.