A MODEL OF PREDICTION OF FOREST-FIRE HAZARD

A. M. Grishin and A. I. Fil'kov

UDC 510.6:683.3:532.5.013

A rather simple and physically substantiated deterministic-probabilistic 
expert system of prediction of forest-fire hazard, which can be used 
in practice, is suggested. Results of the calculation by the verified 
model of drying of forest combustibles, which allows for partial pressure 
of water vapor, are compared with results obtained by different models 
and experimental data.

Tomsk State University, 36 Lenin Ave., Tomsk, 634050, 
Russia; email: fire@fire.tsu.tomsk.su. Translated from Inzhenerno-Fizicheskii 
Zhurnal, Vol. 76, No. 5, pp. 154-158, September-October, 2003. 
Original article submitted January 14, 2003; revision submitted April 
4, 2003.